Epic Fail

POLITICO has the quote of the day:”Now the question is, can the Leader of the Free World, lead the Free World….he will have to do better than he has for the past five years…”

Ahhh….yes. Each of the nations he must lead, particularly in Europe, has strong economic ties to Russia. Wealthy Russians buy expensive European homes, and Russian children attend wealthy private European schools.

Worse, Russian natural gas heats European homes, and Russia has throttled that gas line in the past when Russia.wants something that diplomacy has not gained. Russia can’t use that except during Winter, and we are approaching Summer so the Russians need to use their other levers.

They have plenty. Russia is a Third World country but they have a huge country, tons of oil-generated cash, and many, many needs to be filled that European businesses have leaped to fill. Money talks, and Europeans are listening.

No, this will be something difficult to manage. It could have been forestalled by a stronger president of the US who was feared, or even one who was impulsive and unpredictable, but Obama is neither scary or unpredictable.

Putin saw the line crossed in Syria without any action, and like Syria, quick action could have avoided that which even stronger action taken later cannot solve.

Europe will give lip-service but that’s all.

So long as the Russians stay in the Crimea, which is an autonomous part of the Ukraine, nothing really bad will happen. The Russians have had a port in Sevastopol for 200 years, and Crimea is mostly Russian- speaking and thinks of itself as Russian. It is where Russians go to get warm.

This may well end in partition of the Crimea from the Ukraine and back into Mother Russia.

That is the BEST we can hope for.

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