If a PolySci Major Wants to Make a Name

Hubris is believing that you can dictate wages without resistance. Wages setting is “feel good” legislation and assumes that business has no alternatives — but they do!

If a company is in manufacturing, the list is long, but includes off-shoring, or automation. I taught Artificial Intelligence at the graduate an undergraduate level for 14 years — I wrote the first AI Navy program in 1968 — and the recent progress is asymptotic, bringing robotics to the lowest level in history.

A recent Oxford University study ranked the viability of work categories (there is even an interactive site where you can enter your job), and one of the triggers for automation is wage/benefit.

Politicians can manipulate the wage portion of a business, but not the reaction of the business — static vs dynamic analysis. Dynamic always wins — unless politicians also dictate that a business may not fire people, replace with automation, off-shore, or go out of business.

But there may yet be a place for politicians — as automation and AI increase, the society may become Ancient Greece, where citizens go to the Forum to discuss the meaning of life while slaves do the work. In this case the slaves will be robots.

I suggest that PolySci might consider the impact on a society where few work, and the impact that monkeying with the wage portion and the impact that has on artificially accelerating this impact on society.

As my Lacrosse Coach once yelled (constantly), “You are being killed in the transition game!”


Meanwhile there is no better crucible for testing the flight of business because of wage manipulation, and onerous regulation than California — Chief Executive Magazine just selected California as the WORST state in which to do business — for the 10th CONSECUTIVE year!

“Research and data” never started a company! (I have!) “Research and data” never turned around a computer company for the US Bankruptcy Court! (I have!) “Research and data” has never taken a Los Angeles TV station from $1.9 million profit in 18 months to $9 million in profit! (I have!)

It is the problem we have with Global Whatever — the modeling does not meet the observed, and in my opinion it is because modeling is often ideology driven while observation is reality driven.

The most glaring example is the “Luxury Tax” of 1990, which drove both boat builders and airplane manufacturers to a near death experience — and it was repealed in 1993. The boat builders near Cape Cod probably prevailed on the major backer — Ted Kennedy — to favor repeal of his own measure!

It is my opinion that PolySci majors would do well, professionally, to examine the social impact ot: THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. OsborneSeptember 17, 2013

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