Kim Is On  Decade’s Long Winning Streak

I have no clue about the Korean mess. Let me prove it, as if I have not in the past.
First, every recent administration has vowed that the North would not get nuclear weapons — but they did. They have a stockpile!

Then every recent administration, including this one, has declared that the North would not get an ICBM — but they did.

I am not at all certain what the next capability of the North they might exceed. I guess it will be when the North decides to test an ICBM with a nuclear warhead in the Pacific, proving a certifiable successful re-entry vehicle. This capability is certainly attainable within six months, as the North proves once again that it can stay ahead of our predicted schedule. 

The North has no confidence in our willingness to sacrifice millions of South Koreans on the altar of stopping them from anything they want to do. We have warned and bluffed for decades, and the North has consistently called our bluffs with impunity. 

Even if the day comes when we are no longer bluffing, the North will simply have no confidence we mean it. Iran is in a similar position, except that if they make a headlong rush to create a bomb, Israel is NOT bluffing. 

We have no Israel in the Pacific!

How does this all play out? North Korea will become a fully established nuclear threat, but it then cannot any longer threaten, blackmail, or demand tribute unless it demonstrates a willingness to actually use its arsenal. The only way to do that is to actually use its arsenal, and THAT will bring retaliation even if the North doesn’t believe it. 

Kim Jong Un is playing the long game, but that is just 18 months or so before he has to make his demands while sabre rattling. No doubt he will demand First a deletion of the economic sanctions or South Korea, or possibly Guam or Honolulu, dies. 

We can postpone war. We can’t stop it. We can pick the time and place of our choosing, or let Kim pick it. 

Or we can agree to the end of sanctions on the grounds they simply did not work, which is true. Kim’s eventual goal is one Korea under his control. That seems too far-fetched right now, but not to Kim who is on a decades long winning streak.

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