Typhoon!

The typhoon that struck the Philippines Islands, usually called the P.I. In the Navy, caused the usual problems of the South Pacific. I have suffered through several typhoons in submarines, and seen the results on land immediately after two such destructive activities on the island of Kauai.

(Hurricanes and typhoons are the same thing with different names. Because of their locations, typhoons are stronger.)

Submarines had it easy — first we lashed ourselves on the bridge and in the shears, while those below had seat belts in their bunks. Then when it got worse, we snorkeled on the surface with visibility through the periscope, and finally we submerged. It is always dead calm when submerged several hundred feet. We could only go two or three knots but at least we could walk about, without seasickness.

The Hurricane/typhoon that struck the Island of Kauai destroyed the US Navy wind gauge at 235 MPH.  These typhoons are particularly dangerous because they have a huge ocean of warm water over which to gain power.

Because the nations and islands of the South Pacific are warm, and the people often poor, their buildings are poorly constructed. Even wealthy homes on Hawaiian Islands often are single-wall construction and often have neither heat nor air conditioning. There is little need for more. Its just an unnecessary expense.

In my writings about the history, culture and politics of Hawaii in general, and Kauai in particular, I have noted that homes are constructed in two manners — indestructible, and disposable. The Kauai home we stayed in three or four months a year for almost 20 years was disposable, but the Getty Estate just down the street was indestructible. Fortunately, because of fortuitous location, neither home was destroyed or even badly damaged by either Iwa (1982) or Iniki (1992).

Of course, the Hawaiian Islands are MUCH richer than any of the other South Pacific islands, so when I saw the miles of flattened trees, and what were restaurants were only concrete slabs with a pipe protruding on Kauai, I can only imagine what could happen in the P.I.

On Kauai, I saw condos that looked like drive-through car washes. If winds can do that to concrete buildings, imagine what it can do to shacks– and much of the P.i. Is shacks

Even worse is Vietnam, and that poor nation is struck with 20 typhoons a year.

We just have no concept of the destructive power of these storms.

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The “Old News” Ploy

The Benghazi attack is undergoing the “Old News Ploy.”

The “old news Ploy” is as valuable to politicians as is the Washington Monument Ploy.

The object is to delay, dribble a few facts, then when some enterprising journalist starts digging, reply with, “It’s old news.” The object is to dissuade the journalist from going further or to demean his final results. ALL administrations (and their press supporters) defend everything with all their might.

Back when the USS Pueblo (AGER-2) was seized on the high seas, the State Department asked all crewmember’s families to stay out of the news and let the Diplomats handle it. Meanwhile, as adviser to the Commanding Officer’s wife, I received a number of letters from Korean War POW families telling me that they had also be advised to remain silent while the diplomatic channels worked – but that their loved ones had been captured in the Korean War and several years after the war was over they had gone to the press about the fact that their loved ones had NEVER been returned.

They were told, “That’s old news.” Their loved ones were never recovered.

I told the State Department that they had 30 days of silence, after which we would raise Holy Hell!

We did. The Pueblo crew was returned. Coincidence? The CO and his crew didn’t believe so.

Don’t believe the “Old News” gambit – or the Washington Monument gambit, either.

Quick Hits

Sorry for the delay in posting. Sometimes, situations dictate…

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The LA Times Op-Ed Editor will no longer select for print those letters that deny Anthropological Global Warming.

“Letters that have an untrue basis (for example, ones that say there’s no sign humans have caused climate change) do not get printed,” Paul Thornton wrote.”

So much for inclusion, diversity of opinion, etc.

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The entire local and state-wide government situation can be summed up with two quotes that are germane.

When asked what unions want, the Father of Unionism, Samuel Gompers, replied, “more. And when we get more we will demand still more…”

And

“There is not enough money because the production of rights and benefits has outstripped the production of wealth.” Christopher Caldwell

The Governor has signed a law that forbids firing victims of domestic violence, and that is fine except it treats the symptoms, only.

The case which triggered this law, was a Catholic School which fired a teacher because the threats from he ex were sufficient for the school to believe that the children would be in danger should she remain.

We must do more to ACTUALLY protect victims of domestic violence, and a piece of paper called a “Restraining Order” does NOT “restrain.”

When there is ANY question of violence, the potential violent party should be required to wear a GPS alert system, along with the potential victim, that tells ALL police cruisers in a neighborhood when the two signals are within a set distance.

Technology must be brought to this problem. We are losing too many innocent victims to KNOWN violent people. Firing innocents is not the answer, and neither is placing children at risk.

This particular situation was a lose-lose situation.

Finally, Fright Mongers Bring Comedy

Depending upon where one cherry-picks the years, the predictions for Global Whatever look better or worse, but even the IPCC admits in its Summary that there is currently no measurable warming and has been none for more than a decade. We await the final and detailed report, and we know that there has been a debate between politicians, who want the 15+ year hiatus de-emphasized, and the scientists who simply want the numbers to stand on their own.

We also know that the scary predictions made by POLITICIANS and their acolytes have failed to materialize, so, having learned their lessons, they have extended the time period out beyond our ability to check their accuracy.

In the end, the debate is over — political support for AGW is so low as to deny the Scare Mongers any support for meaningful legislation. China and India will not support anything that interferes with their ability to attain First World status, and US citizenry will not support aggressive legislation absent measurements that match political predictions.

In effect, the AGW cult has overplayed their hands, the fight may not be over, but the fright is over and now the laughter builds. Now, Sir Bob Geldof, the famous Rocker turned African philanthropist said last week that all human life could be gone by 2030 because of Global Whatever.

Pure comedy! Der Speigal tells us that in Germany, the most Green of nations, the Fright Level has fallen from 62% in 2009 to only 39% today.

But the Fright Mongers — a cult — continue.

Global Warming Takes a Break

The release of the Summary of the IPCC report on “Climate Change” has caused a storm in that it confirms that there has been little if any warming in more than a decade.

There is no more Global Warming supportive nation than Germany, but this article from Der Spiegal shows a shift, and the entire article is most instructive about the “hiatus”:

“The number of people who believe in such a coming apocalypse, however, has considerably decreased. A survey conducted on behalf of SPIEGEL found a dramatic shift in public opinion — Germans are losing their fear of climate change. While in 2006 a sizeable majority of 62 percent expressed a fear of global warning, that number has now become a minority of just 39 percent.

One cause of this shift, presumably, is the fact that global warming seems to be taking a break. The average global temperature hasn’t risen in 15 years, a deviation from climatologists’ computer-simulated predictions.”

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/climate-scientists-face-crisis-over-global-warming-pause-a-923937.html

Daniel Patrick Moynahan, a man of great intelligence, was so concerned with Global Warming while acting as US Representative to the United Nations, that in a September, 1969 memo to Richard Nixon, he wrote a prediction that by the year 2000, NYC and D.C. Would disappear:

“This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit,” he wrote. “This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/03/moynihan-nixon-global-warming_n_634526.html

No need to remark about Al Gore and his prediction that Article ice would have disappeared by 2013, but my point was that politicians (not scientists) but politicians (and their acolytes) make scary predictions for purely political reasons.

Have we learned anything since the 1969 Moynihan memo? Yes we learned not to make our predictions so short-ranged that they can be checked before we die! There will always be books that catalog the errors of well-known people, such as the CEO of IBM (Thomas Watson) who said there was “a world market for perhaps five computers,” but Mann need not worry.

He is but a footnote. Still he understands the error of making the horizon too close.

As someone who wrote the first Navy Artificial Intelligence program (it was mostly artificial and had little intelligence I.e. Inference Engine), I too have little confidence in predictive analysis from models. It is true that given enough time, and a Feedback Program, predictions get better but in this case time is measured in decades, even centuries or millennia, but non-scientists (politicians) make predictions based on initial analysis for political reasons.

Some scientists agree for career enhancement, or grant money, but we fail every year to get NEAR predicting hurricanes in the gulf, and then presume to predict earth’s temperature changes.

Species megalomania writ on a grand scale. Too many variables, similar to predicting a single. humans future, five years out.

Scientists understand, but those with political ambitions know that scaring the population has political benefit. The pretense gets harder to explain.

Presidential Magic Act

With economic recovery problems, NSA problems, IRS problems, Justice Department problems, Supreme Court decisions…the president gives a speech on…Climate Change?

The respected Pew Foundation did a reality check on the Top 21 issues most concerning Americans, and absolutely last on the list was Climate Change.

I suppose that is because Americans realize that even if there is carbon dioxide global warming, pauperizing the US economy will not have any effect if we can’t get everyone else on board.

(Yes, I know that there has been no earth warming since 1996, but facts do not matter to ideologues.)

So, what does the president do yesterday? He doubles down on Global Whatever. Now, there is hardly a president in recent memory who has put as much CO2 or carbon into the air with his travels, but, it’s “do as I say, not as I do” for this president — although he is just barely ahead of the major Hypocrite, Al Gore.